Author: Editor Choice

(Oil & Gas 360) – The Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Congress (DECARBON) unites decision makers to share their viewpoints and companies experience on using advanced tools to decarbonise the industry operations. Predictive maintenance is a highlight among the topics of the Congress. Being hosted by BGS Group, DECARBON is held in Berlin, Germany, on 10-11 February 2025.

In recent years, technology has progressed enough to develop solutions that optimise maintenance in the oil and gas operations. One of these solutions is predictive maintenance, which is widely implemented in the companies operations to minimise the failures and reduce energy consumption.

For example, BASF, who is in the list of participants of DECARBON 2025, uses predictive maintenance and AI to support climate neutrality and a circular economy by automatically calculating product-specific carbon footprints or improving management of value chains. The company also developed an application to predict and reduce unplanned repairs and failures, and to optimise the coordination of maintenance and production processes.

To share the companies experience on implementing predictive maintenance technologies for decarbonising the operations, representatives from EPCs, oil and gas companies, refineries and service providers joins the roundtable on the first day of DECARBON 2025.

The roundtable is a closed-door session, with the limited number of participants, focuses on discussions between audience and speakers. The conversation is going to be focused on prevention of asset failures with AI, ML, VR, AR as well as advanced control and monitoring tools, optimisation of planned maintenance, data measurement and analytics management.

One of the speaker of that day, Christian Gärtner, General Manager of MIYAWAKI, presents  software designed to manage steam networks. This software can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by conducting steam network audits. The analysis of the data reveals the extent of current and ongoing steam loss.

This includes not only the amount of steam lost, but also the associated financial impact, environmental consequences, and overall system performance. Joining Christian Gärtner at the roundtable, a speaker from the company HAPTICA, Giuseppe Tussiwand, Managing Director, shares the results of pipeline performance and integrity using “strap-on” digital sensors.

The Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Congress 2025 is a platform for decision-makers and experienced technical specialists of the oil and gas industry to expand professional network and work together on decarbonised future.

Be part of the conversation by filling in the registration form:  https://decarboncongress.com/registration/

(Oil & Gas 360) – A few days ago I returned from a trip in which we passed through London and I tacked on a few days there.  As always, one of the best evenings was dinner and conversation with Lieutenant General Sir Simon Mayall.

Simon has a long personal and family history in the Middle East, was Operations Officer for British Forces in the Gulf War and recently had advisory and envoy roles for the Middle East to the British Government and Prime Minister.

Sir Simon has a new book out, The House of War.  The title derives from how Islam refers to all non-Islamic areas of the world.  The book presents a review of the great clashes and battles between Islam and Christianity over the past 1300 years.  Certain patterns and principles for prevailing in the ongoing confrontations in the Middle East emerge. We are in such a period now and those principles can guide our actions.

We are in a precarious position in the Middle East.  The focus of Israel’s Defense Forces has shifted from the confrontation with Hamas in Gaza to Israel’s northern border with Lebanon where Hezbollah has attacked Israel with missiles for months and displaced thousands of Israelis from their homes.  Israel cannot tolerate this and has retaliated with strikes against Hezbollah, including killing its leader, his staff, and his replacement.  Hezbollah situates itself among civilians so some of the Israeli strikes against Hezbollah also kills civilians.

Hezbollah represents Shiite Muslims in Lebanon and, as such, the military wing operates as a proxy for Iran.  Iran funds and supplies Hezbollah.  Recently, the Israeli confrontation Hezbollah escalated to direct missile attacks on Israel from Iran.  The world now waits for the Israeli retaliation against Iran, which could expand into a major regional war with extensive civilian casualties, another major refugee crisis, and possible US involvement in support of Israel.

Lebanon is an unusual place in the Middle East.  Its population includes Maronite Christians, Greek Orthodox Christians, Greek Catholic Christians, Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims,  and Druze.  It is a democracy but with so many sectarian groups it cannot form a majority to do anything.   Lebanon has had no president or central administration for over two years.   Its main source of funding is the United States.

The Lebanon Defense Force (LDF) is the military arm of the Lebanese government and seems to be the only arm of the government with civilian respect; its function is to prevent violence between the various sects of the population.  The LDF, about 70,000 men, is funded and equipped mostly by the United States.

A third military group is the United Nations Force in Lebanon (UNFIL) which is over 10,000 UN peacekeeper troops from about 50 countries stationed along, and within 5 km of, the border between Lebanon and Israel, known as the Blue Line.  Supposedly they are maintaining a de-militarized zone along the border.  During recent Israeli strikes into Lebanon, Israeli tank fire injured Irish soldiers at an UNFIL base causing alarm in Ireland and Europe about Israeli action in the DMZ.  Today, the Israelis showed the world the extensive Hezbollah deep tunnel system and arms caches in the DMZ.  Obviously, the UNFIL people have not done their job – for a long time.  They must think they are on holiday.

Lebanon historically considered itself a Western country.  With all the turmoil and refugee movements it is not sure as to its identity but has strong ties to the West.  At this point, the Iran – Israel conflict may destroy whatever economy and national identity it has left.   The US is trying to calm the situation, asking the Israelis not to invade Lebanon with ground forces, sending more aid to Lebanon, and asking Israel not to attack Iran.

Broader considerations are that, with a diminishing US Middle East presence, Russia and China are expanding theirs.  They are doing this directly and through growing Arab membership in the BRICS group.  Russia will host a meeting of BRICS October 22 – 24 at which they will welcome five new members: The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, and Ethiopia.  Note that this includes three large oil producers and two US allies who are obviously hedging their bets on what future US policy and effectiveness will be.  The group will discuss steps to take to replace the dollar as the reserve currency in international trade.

Another consideration is maintaining gas supplies to Europe.  Europe is devoid of political will or initiative to take care of itself.  Large gas resources in North Africa and the Eastern Med are available for development under a coordinated program to supply Europe and increase the prosperity of the producer countries.  The US, with its experience in oil and gas development, can supply the expertise and leadership to lead this program but it needs to expand its presence in the Eastern Med.

The US now has a rare opportunity to assert itself with a surprise positive strategic move.  The US should pre-emptively move into Lebanon with a large, overwhelming ground force in support of the Lebanese Defense Force and government as well as UNFIL to protect Lebanese civilians from a bloodbath. US forces would give the LDF the necessary backup strength to stop the cross-border fighting between Hezbollah and Israel, possibly avert a war between Iran and Israel, and maintain order as a new functioning Lebanese government is established.

Such a move would not only mitigate a pending war but would also re-establish US primacy in the region, disrupt Russian and Chinese plans to move in, give the US dominance in the Medilerranean, dispel the image of the US as a weak and declining power, undermine the upcoming BRICS conference, and convince the Saudis and UAE the US will support them, and generally assert US resolve.

Does the United States have the leadership to execute such a move?  No.

The US continually tries to get Israel to agree to a one-way cease fire somewhere, anywhere without any agreement from the other side – an exercise in futility.  Such a move needs to be executed quickly, boldly, and big.  It must be a surprise and catch everyone off-guard.  It requires bold, confident, decisive, leadership.  The US is led by a doddering  incompetent who was never right about anything with feckless subordinates and a Vice President who boasted she was able to find the Middle East on a map.

By Dr. Charles A. Kohlhass for oilandgas360.com/Industry Insights & Opinions

( Oil & Gas 360)—Energy Market Assessment: The high level of lack of understanding and the greatly reduced awareness of the economy and energy markets are providing much opportunity.

Quite a few think there has never been a Hurricane as big and damaging as Milton. This is another example of a high level of lack of understanding and greatly reduced awareness of the economy and energy markets. However, that is providing much opportunity.

Hurricane Milton moved across the Gulf of Mexico, energizing it to a Category 5 Hurricane made landfall south of Tampa Bay, Florida, late on 10/9 with winds rated at 120 miles per hour (mph), a Category 3 storm. Milton followed Hurricane Helene which came ashore on Florida’s Big Ben on 9/26 as a Category 4 storm, with 140 mph maximum winds, which added to the fear and attention on Milton. That, and reports Milton spawned more than 100 damaging tornados, helped it to be viewed as the biggest and most damaging hurricane ever.

However, Hurricane Irma, which came ashore on Saint Maarten on 9/6/2017 as a Category 5 storm (with 185 mph wind-speed peaks), was followed by Hurricane Maria on 9/19/17. Maria went on to hit Puerto Rico as a Category 4 Hurricane, where it accounted for 2,975 of its 3,059 deaths. We recall reports that Saint Maarten experienced around 150 tornados.

We suspect the hurricane damage news, recession fear, and reports that a) things are doing wonderfully and b) things are doing terribly, and have only a few knowing that the U.S. has become the world’s largest petroleum product exporter. And that delayed, post-recession growth over there is a major driver of UP being the direction we head.

Total petroleum product exports in the last four weeks averaged 6.847 mmbd (Figure A, red line), 0.469 (+7.3%) more than 6.378 last year (blue line).  Europe and Asia also enjoyed a delightfully mild Winter last year which  increases the potential for consensus-beating oil demand growth, soon catching many oil and natural gas short.

By Mike Smolinski with Energy Directions for oilandgas360.com/Industry Insights & Opinions

(Oil & Gas 360) – HAMILTON, Bermuda, Oct. 15, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Nabors Industries Ltd. (“Nabors”) (NYSE: NBR) and Parker Wellbore (“Parker”) today announced a definitive agreement under which Nabors will acquire all of Parker’s issued and outstanding common shares in exchange for 4.8 million shares of Nabors common stock, subject to a share price collar.

(World Oil) – Baker Hughes has been awarded a contract to supply advanced compression solutions to Saipem for TotalEnergies’ Kaminho Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) project in Angola, the company announced Tuesday. The contract is to be booked in the third quarter of 2024.

Baker Hughes’ centrifugal BCL compressor and Integrated Compressor Line (ICL) technology were selected because of their capacity to minimize emissions, eliminate routine flaring and reinject associated gas into the reservoir for storage.

The all-electric Kaminho project is the first large deepwater development in the Kwanza basin and comprises the conversion of a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) to a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) unit. Production start-up is set for 2028 and is expected to reach 70,000 bopd production.

“The all-electric Kaminho FPSO project in Angola is a key example of sustainable energy development whereby the project will provide critical energy supply to the country, leveraging proven technology to lower its overall carbon footprint,” said Alberto Matucci, vice president, Gas Technology Equipment, Industrial & Energy Technology at Baker Hughes. “Baker Hughes is proud to be contributing our vast experience in offshore and our leading low-emission compression technology to support TotalEnergies, Saipem and the Block 20/11 partners on this important project.”

This award builds on Baker Hughes’ positive momentum in the offshore segment, most recently securing two major offshore topside contracts to provide power generation systems for two innovative, large-size and all-electric FPSO units in Latin America. Also this year, Baker Hughes was awarded a major Gas Technology Equipment contract in Algeria, further boosting its involvement in critical energy infrastructure projects across multiple geographies.

About Baker Hughes

Baker Hughes is an energy technology company that provides solutions to energy and industrial customers worldwide. Built on a century of experience and conducting business in over 120 countries, its innovative technologies and services strive to provide safer, cleaner and more efficient energy for people and the planet.

(Oil Price) – Germany’s car manufacturing giant BMW is warning that an EU ban on the sale of gasoline and diesel cars from 2035 is “no longer realistic” amid slow EV sales as the European auto industry will see a “massive shrinking” with such a ban.

European carmakers are already struggling with their EV sales as subsidies in many countries are coming to an end and Chinese low-cost vehicle makers are gaining market share.

Last year, the EU member states approved an emissions regulation under which the bloc will end sales of new carbon dioxide-emitting cars and vans in 2035.

The rules target 55% CO2 emission reductions for new cars and 50% for new vans from 2030 to 2034 compared to 2021 levels, as well as 100% CO2 emission reductions for both new cars and vans from 2035.

Under the regulation, the European Commission will assess in 2026 the progress the EU has made in achieving the target. The Commission will decide whether the targets need to be reviewed.

But BMW’s chief executive Oliver Zipse said on Tuesday at the Paris Automotive Summit that the ban “could also threaten the European automotive industry in its heart.”

The current regulations will “with today’s assumptions, lead to a massive shrinking of the industry as a whole,” Zipse added, as carried by Bloomberg.

Electric vehicle sales in Europe have been suffering this year. Sales in Germany, for example, are plummeting as Berlin ended subsidies at the end of 2023.

Amid slowing sales of EVs, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, ACEA, last month called for urgent action to reverse this year’s trend of declining EV sales.

The European auto manufacturers united in ACEA, called on the EU institutions “to come forward with urgent relief measures before new CO2 targets for cars and vans come into effect in 2025.”

Europe’s automakers “are playing our part in this transition, but unfortunately, the other necessary elements for this systemic shift are not in place,” ACEA said.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

(World Oil) – North Star has secured its first contract for a commissioning service operation vessel (CSOV), a second award with EnBW, further establishing the company’s growing presence in the European offshore wind sector.

This award for the newbuild Grampian Kestrel CSOV (of VARD 4 22 design), will precede the decade-long minimum charter contract the firm signed in February to provide a SOV (of VARD 407 design) for the German energy utility firm’s He Dreiht wind farm in the North Sea.

With a total installed output of 960 MW, the development is currently one of Europe’s largest energy transition projects and will be able to supply 1.1 million households with renewable energy. From the end of next year, 64 wind turbines with an installed output of 15 MW each around 90 kilometers northwest of the island of Borkum and 110 kilometers west of Helgoland will be connected to the grid.

Tailored for the commissioning phase, the Grampian Kestrel will offer essential accommodation and logistics to support the construction and commissioning works in 2025. Following this period, it will lead EnBW’s operations and maintenance activities until the newbuild SOV is delivered in Q3 2026.

“Securing this commissioning vessel contract with EnBW highlights our strategic move to broaden our hybrid SOV services aligned to the European renewables market,” said North Star CEO Matthew Gordon. “It also demonstrates our ability to meet the unique demands of large-scale projects like EnBW’s He Dreiht wind farm.”

“The CSOV, part of North Star’s growing fleet as we aim to add 40 SOVs by 2040, will be equipped with market-leading accessibility to enable commissioning and maintenance operations, and feature the latest hull design optimized for low fuel consumption and resistance, as well as high operability and comfort.

This new contract with EnBW sets the stage for a long-term partnership and positions North Star as a key player in the transition to renewable energy.”

The Grampian Kestrel is the first of two CSOVs under construction for North Star. The VARD 4 22 design has been developed especially for North Star, with new methanol-ready hybrid-propulsion solutions and an increased number of single cabins, providing hotel quality accommodation for the technicians working in field.

“The contract gives us the flexibility we need to respond quickly and efficiently to the upcoming challenges during the construction and commissioning of He Dreiht,” said Stefan Umland, EnBW’s construction manager. “The Grampian Kestrel provides us with state-of-the-art accommodation and transport facilities for the technicians deployed within the windfarm.”

The firm, which has a base in Hamburg as well as U.K. operations in Aberdeen, Lowestoft and Newcastle, has a 1,400 strong onshore and seafaring workforce, and has added a total of eight SOVs and CSOVs to its fleet since entering the offshore wind market in March 2021.

About North Star

North Star is the market-leading U.K. provider of mission critical, offshore infrastructure support services to offshore wind and offshore oil and gas markets.

The firm has bases in Aberdeen, Lowestoft and Newcastle and Hamburg, and has a workforce of 1,400 seafarers and onshore personnel. It has been supporting the energy sector for the past four decades. Its offshore infrastructure support vessel fleet boasts 42 assets and provides continuous around the clock support services to more than 50 North Sea installations. The company’s first three of four Service Operations Vessels (SOVs), the Grampian Tyne, Grampian Derwent and Grampian Tees have been delivered to support the Dogger Bank Wind Farm partners, all are under charter for a 10-year minimum. The business has also invested in its first two Commissioning SOVs to support the growing European offshore wind market.

About EnBW

With over 28,000 employees, EnBW is one of the largest energy companies in Germany and Europe. It supplies around 5.5 million customers with electricity and gas. As part of its transformation from a traditional energy company to a sustainable infrastructure group, the expansion of renewable energy sources and of the distribution and transmission grids for electricity, gas and hydrogen are cornerstones of EnBW’s growth strategy and the focus of its investments. Until 2030, EnBW plans gross investments of €40 billion. By then, around 80 percent of EnBW’s generation portfolio is to consist of renewable energies, and the company aims to phase out coal by the end of 2028. These are key milestones on the road to the company’s climate neutrality in 2035.

(Oil & Gas 360) – Last Friday, the Biden administration unveiled its official response to the October 1 attack on Israel by Iran by imposing harsh sanctions on the National Iranian Oil Company.

In addition to blocking oil exports, the increased sanctions include petrochemicals and elevated scrutiny and countermeasures to block “ghost ships” from the United Arab Emirates, Liberia, Hong Kong, and others who have been circumventing earlier U.S. sanctions to sell Iranian oil.

In addition to the State Department actions, the U.S. Treasury has designated sixteen entities and seventeen vessels as “blocked property,” meaning that assets are frozen, and unable to be transferred, monetized, or purchased unless first approved by Treasury’s Office of Foreign Asset Control.

The move appears to be an effort by the administration to keep Israel from bombing Iran’s oil facilities in retaliation for the October 1 missile barrage. President Biden has openly voiced his administration’s opposition to Israel attacking Iran’s oil infrastructure.

There are reports of some other Middle East countries asking the U.S. to pressure Israel from such action, afraid that Iran or its proxies would retaliate against their oil infrastructure.

Iran has warned several of its Middle East neighbors that those deemed supportive of U.S. and Israel’s efforts to battle the country would face repercussions.

Every oil-producing country in the Middle East monitors break-even prices to support social cohesion through spending on social programs, public finance, education, and infrastructure.

Youth unemployment remains a social risk throughout the region. Iran’s rate is slightly lower than the average regional rate of 25%, but Saudi Arabia’s is over 40%.

However, the latest sanctions may have little economic impact on Iran. The World Bank reports that the Iranian regime can sustain its economy, military, and social spending with break-even prices below $45 a barrel.

The World Bank puts the break-even point for Iran’s main oil exporting rival in the region, Saudi Arabia, at nearly $57 a barrel. The Saudis have been more proactive than their other Middle East neighbors in actively leveraging their oil wealth to diversify their economy through their Vision 2030 plan.

By Jim Felton for oilandgas360.com

(World Oil) –  At least one investor is making a big bet that CNX Resources Corp. will keep climbing even as the natural gas producer’s stock reached a 10-year high this week.

Options trading in CNX surged as one or more investors bought over 34,000 call options on Thursday and Friday. The derivatives give holders the right to buy more than 3 million shares at $40 by mid-April. The wager was made while the stock was still trading around $35, shares advanced 5.1% Friday to $36.52, the highest since July 2014.

Friday’s option volume is the largest since July 2020 for the $5.5 billion natural gas producer focused on the Marcellus and Utica shale.

The stock’s advance comes even as natural gas futures slip. Henry Hub prices fell nearly 8% this week on track for their worst weekly slump since July. Prices for the fuel have been holding below $3 per million British Thermal Units for most of the year, restrained by growing production and lackluster demand.

The Energy Information Administration offered some comfort to traders bullish on the commodity, estimating this week that colder weather will boost home consumption by about 5% this winter.

Meanwhile, a Sterling Capital fund opened a position in the company in the quarter ended Sept. 30. The position was only 22,640 shares, according to data analyzed by Bloomberg.

(Oil & Gas 360) – Since it’s the season for handicapping everything from fantasy football to electoral outcomes, Oil & Gas 360 offers some picks and perspectives if you’re in a peak oil prediction pool.

Earlier fossil fuel forecasters were humbled (one would think so, anyway) for utterly underestimating the resource size, ingenuity, and appetite for risk that proved them all so utterly wrong.

How can one not start with the King? M. King Hubbert was fossil fuel’s first Malthusian when, in 1956, he predicted U.S. oil production would peak sometime before 1970. He proved pretty prescient as domestic production fell off in the early 1970s. When it rebounded, albeit slowly, he doubled down with another forecast in 1974, this time about global production peaking around 2000.

Not to be outdone, a couple of oil field lifers, Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere, called for an irrecoverable decline in global production starting in 2005 in their widely circulated article for Scientific American, “The End of Cheap Oil,” in 1998. The two were professionals of considerable credibility given their combined experience as petroleum geologists and engineers, respectively, at about 75 years.

Geologist, Hubbert acolyte, co-worker, and author of “Hubbert’s Peak” and “Beyond Oil,” Kenneth S. Deffeyes likewise predicted the world would start running out of oil around 2005.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate that year was slightly less than $57 a barrel.  Adjusted for inflation, that barrel today would be around $85.

After Campbell, Laherrere, and Deffeyes, the focus changed to more oil demand than production when some of the Super Majors entered the petrol prognosticating derby.

Ten years ago, Exxon predicted a production peak in 2040; in 2010, BP called for oil demand to peak in 2020. Shell is projecting a production peak in 2025. OPEC predicts oil demand to peak in 2045.

Others outside the business have weighed in on turning the bit to the right. In 2008, the International Energy Agency predicted peak production to have occurred four years ago.

A year later, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected peak oil around 2030. McKinsey and Company predict peak oil demand around the same time. BloombergNEF this year forecasts peak demand around 2035.

Place your bets now, but as you can see above, betting against the oil industry probably isn’t going to work out well.

By Jim Felton for oilandgas360.com